Nber dating

The one case where I diverge from some (but not all) mainstream historical accounts is the alleged recession during the banking crisis that began in 1839, after the recovery from the 1837 recession. North (1961), and Peter Temin (1969) have all noted, estimates of real GDP growth over the next four years are quite robust.

My chronology therefore differs in important ways from prior lists.

Of course the Panic of 1907 was concentrated among state banks and trust companies.

Unfortunately, as far as I can tell, there are no good time series on the failures of state banks for the period prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve.

Once the Great Depression is thrown out as a statistical outlier, we observe no significant change in the frequency, duration, or magnitude of recessions between the period before and the period after that unique downturn.

Given that the Great Depression witnessed the initiation of extensive government policies to alleviate depressions and that the Federal Reserve had been created fifteen years earlier explicitly to prevent such crises, this overall historical continuity with a single exception indicates that government intervention and central banking has done little, if anything, to dampen the business cycle.

Search for nber dating:

nber dating-89nber dating-63nber dating-84nber dating-47

So I have created a revised chronology in the table below.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

One thought on “nber dating”